What is gerrymandering? In short, gerrymandering refers to the manipulation of electoral boundaries to favour a particular political party.
Is there gerrymandering in Singapore? This is an issue that was discussed at length in the recent Parliament sitting earlier this week, following a motion filed by the PSP.
At the end of the debate, there was still a huge amount of scepticism among the opposition MPs from both the WP and the PSP. The opposition MPs did not buy the arguments made by Chan Chun Sing, including: (i) the Election Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) does not have access to voting information, and hence is unable to make recommendations based on voting patterns, and (ii) the EBRC comprises senior civil servants who hold no allegiance to any political party.
Likewise, Chan Chun Sing’s statements were met with doubts from segments of the online crowd. Some, such as Bertha Henson and Andrew Loh, raised the carving out of MacPherson SMC in the 1997 GE by then PM Goh Chok Tong as an example of government intervention in the drawing of electoral boundaries. Others, such as online platform WakeUpSingapore, highlighted the ‘weird’ shapes of some constituencies – e.g. Marine Parade – and presented these as evidence of gerrymandering.
I guess it is understandable for people to feel this way given the PAP’s political dominance since Singapore’s independence. But let us consider the following points as well, before we come to certain conclusions:
Small country with little to no geographical social cleavages/divisions to exploit, where electoral boundaries are concerned
For gerrymandering to work, there needs to be salient geographical social cleavages/divisions for political parties to exploit. For instance, rural-urban divide, racial and religious enclaves, industry-specific issues due to geography e.g. the issues faced in a coastal city would be very different in a mining town. So on and so forth.
These are not present in Singapore. Given Singapore’s small size and government policies such as the EIP which prevents the emergence of ethnic enclaves in our heartlands, constituencies in Singapore are largely homogenous in general. There might be some slight differences in the ethnic make-up or the housing type for instance. But overall, they are the same – more or less. The issues faced by the average voter in Bishan-Toa Payoh is unlikely to be drastically different from someone living in West Coast GRC.
Given these considerations, gerrymandering is not effective in a place like Singapore. To illustrate, let’s look at a hypothetical scenario where a part of the WP-controlled Aljunied GRC gets moved to another GRC neighbouring GRC, and absorbs a part of the PAP-controlled Tampines GRC in return. Given the lack of cleavages to exploit, there is simply no guarantee that the voters who were previously in Tampines GRC would be more supportive of the PAP government compared to the voters who were moved out of Aljunied GRC. The voter in Tampines GRC is likely to be more or less similar to the voter in Aljunied GRC and vice versa.
Hence, the causal mechanism involved in the gerrymandering of districts simply do not offer political parties any advantages due to Singapore’s characteristics.
Perhaps with Nee Soon GRC as an exception, because Yishun.
Why the shape of some constituencies weird weird one?
Sometimes, the choices are between a rock and a hard place. PSP’s Leong Mun Wai took issue with Marine Parade GRC’s ‘weird’ boundaries, stating that he resides in Braddell Heights which is nowhere near the coast and that he does not know the people living at the other end of Marine Parade GRC (because it is too far apart).
What are the alternatives to make Marine Parade GRC’s shape more ‘regular’? It could absorb neighbouring SMCs such as Mountbatten, MacPherson or Potong Pasir. But opposition supporters would cry foul at the lack of SMCs for opposition candidates to contest. Or that these SMCs being absorbed to shore up support for the PAP in Marine Parade.
It could absorb part of WP’s Aljunied GRC to its north, but hey, the opposition will see it as gerrymandering because you are touching their GRC which they had so painstakingly won in 2011.
It could absorb part of East Coast GRC to its east, but then again, that would be seen as gerrymandering to opposition supporters because WP came very close to winning East Coast in 2020. And there is also a need to ensure that the profiles of the constituencies are as close to the national profile as possible – which would be difficult to balance given the high density of landed estates in parts of both Marine Parade and East Coast GRC.
In the end, it is a case of damn if you do, damn if you don’t. Not exactly a fair point for Leong Mun Wai and friends to take issue with, isn’t it?
But didn’t Goh Chok Tong direct the EBRC to carve out MacPherson GRC for the 1997 GE? Isn’t this smoking gun evidence that the EBRC is politically influenced?
Hold up. Let’s get the facts straight.
Back in 1994, it was Chee Soon Juan who challenged then MP for Marine Parade GRC – Matthias Yao – to a straight fight in a single-seat ward following a two-month-long exchange of letters in the Straits Times. The exchange saw Chee Soon Juan demanding the PAP to debate the ideas in his book ‘Dare to Change’ and Matthias Yao questioning Chee’s character and integrity. Several days later, Goh Chok Tong said that he had asked the EBRC to carve MacPherson out of Marine Parade GRC so that Yao and Chee could have their one-on-one electoral contest.
Goh Chok Tong said that as a rule, he was against delineating electoral boundaries for political purposes, but decided to do so with the opposition’s agreement. Goh Chok Tong also added that he was making the request to EBRC publicly, to remove any doubt of the EBRC’s independence, and that this request would not set a precedence for the future. You can read the relevant newspaper report here.
So it was the opposition who requested for the one-on-one fight back then. The government made a special one-off request publicly and above board, in reaction to the opposition’s ask. And the opposition and their supporters are now objecting to the government doing as they requested previously?
How does this logic even work?
Let’s not forget Hougang, Potong Pasir, Aljunied, Sengkang
The final point to consider, and perhaps the strongest, is the continued existence of constituencies such as Hougang SMC, Potong Pasir SMC, and Aljunied GRC, as well as the carving out of Sengkang GRC at the most recent GE in 2020.
The boundaries of Hougang, Potong Pasir and Aljunied have mostly remained unchanged over so many GEs. At no time did the EBRC re-draw the boundaries to favour the PAP. Look at PAP’s Sitoh Yipin – it took him a gargantuan effort over three GEs to finally win in Potong Pasir SMC. Sticking with it and winning over the voters. If there’s gerrymandering, Potong Pasir would have been redrawn out of existence long ago, or at least heavily redrawn to make life easier for the Sitoh. Ditto for Hougang SMC and Aljunied GRC.
And if there’s gerrymandering, Sengkang GRC wouldn’t have been carved out; the EBRC would have made sure that the boundaries were drawn in a way to make sure that the PAP wouldn’t lose, or would have chosen to carve Sengkang into several SMCs instead to minimise possible losses.
Electoral boundaries change with time, and constituencies come and go due to population changes e.g. new housing estates being built. The fact that the WP contested Sengkang (a completely new GRC) and won demonstrates the point that the key determinant to electoral success for any political party is fielding strong and credible candidates, constantly walking and understanding the ground, and convincing Singaporeans to vote for them.
Instead of crying foul over questionable claims, the PSP and the WP would benefit from keeping these fundamentals in mind.
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